Insights

By Alex Bondarenko, February 1st, 2026

Over the past year and a half, gold made an extravagant and extraordinary price rally. Nearly plus 70% up, and recently, a little correction evaporated 3 trillion dollars. This looks so much of a manipulation than an actual demand/supply movement. Even though gold may still get higher in price, is it still a long-term value-preserving asset or more a tool for large swings manipulation by deep-pocket players? 

Without getting into history, although this may take an incredible time journey, gold has been on the balance of many central banks. Currently, they are buying gold. Not because they like or enjoy having it per se, but because the trust in the USD after the current administration is rather flawed. With the exponential growth of political instability, financiers across the world consider safe havens to stay aside. Like they used to say: a smart monkey is looking while two tigers fight; then, when the winner is exhausted, the monkey kills it and becomes the winner. 

So, the question is - will this cycle eject a new momentum towards golden projects be developed with a larger appetite? The short answer is - yes. There are a few reasons behind this. First, many gold projects are working on the most advanced areas, where the gold (i.e., grams per tonne) is at the highest possible levels based on geological study. However, higher margins that gold production will experience over the next few years will stimulate the development of the projects with weaker ore, which previously had a negative NPV. Second, the advancement of gold production will increase the overall multiples of gold companies from the current levels. Because these equities will start generating excessive returns. The AISC (all costs of gold production) will lag with inflation, while the prices are high, which will be reflected in impressive dividends. Three, having more resources today will advance the development of human capital in the industry: if previously gold companies competed with other heavy machinery industries for talent, now the most aggressive gold players will absorb the best talent, which will enable innovations. Having innovations in place will demand an additional CAPEX budget on R&D, which will slice the extra margin; however, it will drive the industry further. 

As a result, in more or less than 15-20 years, I would expect the industry to return to normality, without harsh practices used today (thanks to innovations), without manipulations (actually caused by the structural change of centrabanks portfolios), with the new level for gold prices. This will be the new era of robotics and AI-driven gold development, which will make the resources of Earth more depleted than ever, but, if done currently, may sustain the planet with advanced and more rigid ESG practices.

So, the answer to my question: definitely yes. Gold m&a will become even more mainstream in the near future. However, a really large gold producer will never consider the market behavior as a call to action.

By Alex Bondarenko, December 7th, 2025

Spending over 15 years in M&A, working on over 100 deals as a consultant, investment fund manager, target’s CEO, and an investment banker, I’ve learned that a few key factors can help predict if an investment or M&A deal could collapse. Even after months or years of working on a deal, failure can still occur if you notice one of these factors. Listing all of them would require too much time and a comprehensive book, so I’ll focus on those that seem improbable to outsiders and deeply painful to me.

1. Mismatch between the buyer and seller’s styles. Many deals fail because the buyer and/or seller have different principles, tactics, languages, timing, and cultures. This is especially true in cross-border M&A deals, where one team works tirelessly to gather information quickly, while the other team takes time off to enjoy the holidays. Alternatively, the seller’s owner might be a self-made billionaire, while the buyer is a professional and emotionless individual focused on controlling everything. It’s not a lack of trust; it’s simply a fundamental difference in their personalities. For example, I value punctuality and sticking to promises. If a counterpart promises to do “A,” I assume it will be done. If not, it’s difficult for me to get along with them in the future because I’m biased.

2. Misbalanced or mistrusted partners involved (intermediary-seller/intermediary-buyer). Often, one party tries to hide important details or ambitions. For the seller, this could include fake accounts, tax problems, or poor working capital. For the buyer, cherry picking is a common issue. They may say they’re willing to buy all the assets, but then selectively choose the best ones first and leave the rest behind. Everyone understands this intention, but it can still lead to problems.

3. Pricing negotiation tactics: Every seller wants to sell their unique and valuable business at a premium, while every buyer wants to buy at a discount. However, this rarely happens in real life. If you believe a business you’re trying to acquire is great, be willing to pay enough for it. Unfortunately, I’ve seen owners try to get 10 times the value for a nice but not exceptional company. I’ve also witnessed various tactics used by sellers and buyers to manipulate the other party. However, any such behavior simply reveals the nature of the partner. If you’re in this business for a while, the chances are high that if you trick someone once, they’ll avoid dealing with you at all costs in the future. This will leave you missing out on the best opportunities in the future at the cost of your willingness to squeeze your partner today. Keep this in mind.